Bitcoin Poised for Volatility Ahead of US Elections; Key Levels to Watch Around $66k–$70k

Bitcoin’s price action has entered a period of pronounced volatility as markets brace for the US presidential election results, while the larger, higher-timeframe (HTF) bullish structure remains intact. After an 8% correction between October 29 and November 3, Bitcoin briefly dipped to the mid-67k range over the weekend, before buyers re-emerged. The overarching trend, which began from a Sept. 6 trough near $52,510, continues to show higher highs and higher lows, with repeated tests of the classic Fibonacci “golden zone” between 0.5 and 0.618 during pullbacks. The recent price behavior shows a pattern of testing the 0.618 retracement level, with several sessions closing above this critical threshold, signaling ongoing strength in the HTF structure. A decisive daily close above $68,500 within the next 48 hours would reinforce the lower-timeframe (LTF) bullish architecture and position Bitcoin to challenge the psychologically important $70,000 level in the near term. The market is watching closely as Bitcoin attempts to sustain momentum through what could be a highly eventful week, given the election dynamics and the potential for heightened volatility.

Markets are watching a cluster of levels and narrative drivers that could shape price action in the ensuing sessions. A notable sentiment comes from Cold Blooded Shiller, an anonymous trader active on X, who argued that reclaiming the $69,200 level on the LTF would be pivotal—a claim rooted in the idea that a successful hold above $69,000 on the daily chart serves as a meaningful retest and a sign of underlying strength. Traders and analysts raised questions about whether a V-shaped reversal might emerge around the $66,000 mark, given the way liquidity and order-flow dynamics have evolved in recent weeks. The price has already shown a tendency to bounce from the lower end of the traditional range, suggesting that a test of the mid-60k zone could act as a fulcrum for a renewed upside push, particularly if the election news catalysts align with a broader market appetite for Bitcoin as a hedging asset or return-seeking exposure.

In this broad context, the possibility of a V-pattern reversal, anchored by decisive action around the $66,000 level, remains plausible in the wake of the election outcome. To understand these potential trajectories, it’s essential to dissect the underlying structure that has guided Bitcoin’s price action since September and to explore how on-chain and order-book dynamics contribute to the risk-reward landscape in the near term. The price region around $66,000 to $67,000 emerged as a focal point for several traders, acting initially as a complex resistance barrier that was eventually overcome. Since then, that same zone has evolved into a critical liquidity anchor. The dynamic occurred amid a substantial phase of spot-buy activity, particularly on key exchange venues, which helped propel Bitcoin beyond the $69,000 threshold during the rally’s late stages. This pattern underscore the importance of liquidity depth and order-book depth in sustaining price advances, especially in times of macro-driven uncertainty.

In the sections that follow, this piece delves into three core dimensions: (1) the market structure and price action that frame Bitcoin’s HTF bullish narrative, (2) the on-chain and order-book mechanics that shape near-term liquidity and potential pullbacks, and (3) the macro and sentiment-driven risks that could redefine the short-term path. Throughout, the analysis remains focused on preserving the original ideas: the HTF bullish bias, the significance of the Fibonacci golden zone, the pivotal gates at 68,500 and 70,000, the liquidity concentrations between 66,000 and 67,000, and the risk of a near-term retest toward 62,000 if leverage pressures intensify around election uncertainty. The discussion also integrates the broader consensus among multiple market participants that Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory remains upward, while acknowledging the possibility of a brief, volatility-driven deviation driven by political outcomes and risk-on/risk-off rotations.

Market structure and price action: HTF bullish continuity amid election-driven volatility

Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory remains characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows that trace back to the September dip near $52,510. From that low, the price action has formed a persistent pattern of retracements and recoveries that repeatedly test the 0.5 to 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone—the golden corridor where buyers have historically stepped in to resume the uptrend. This section dissects how this structure has evolved in recent weeks, the implications of closing above key thresholds, and what it means for both HTF and LTF players in the market.

First, the fundamental takeaway is that the HTF market structure has not been overturned despite the near-term volatility. Even as Bitcoin endured a sharp correction of around 8% within a short window, the high-timeframe framework remains anchored by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This consistency matters because it signals that the longer-term capital allocation narrative—institutions, funds, and disciplined traders who view BTC as a strategic exposure—still leans toward accumulation on dips rather than distribution. In practical terms, the HTF bullish structure provides a backdrop against which the short- to medium-term pullbacks are interpreted as buying opportunities rather than signals of a secular top. However, the path of least resistance remains sensitive to macro catalysts and near-term flows, particularly surrounding the US election results and the associated volatility premium.

Another central observation is the recurrent re-testing of the Fibonacci golden zone during corrective moves. The price action since September shows pullbacks that frequently retrace to within the 0.5–0.618 range, followed by reacceleration higher. This pattern reinforces the significance of the golden zone as a magnet for demand during pullbacks, and it is often followed by a renewed impulse higher that expands the previous range. The current sequence implies that even as the price experiences volatility, there is a structural tendency for BTC to reclaim higher price territory after digesting a portion of gains. The current question revolves around whether the next close above a critical threshold—specifically the 0.618 retracement level around the 68,500 area—will sustain the ongoing LTF bullish construction and offer a clear path toward the pivotal $70,000 psychological level.

A key indicator watched by traders is the daily close above $68,500 within a tight time window. If Bitcoin closes above this level within the next 48 hours, it would constitute a meaningful confirmation of the LTF bullish structure, indicating that the immediate supply-demand dynamics favor bulls and that the short-term dips might be contained. Conversely, failure to sustain above this zone could invite renewed testing of lower support levels and raise the risk of a deeper correction before the next leg higher. The implication for market participants is straightforward: a robust close above 68,500 would tilt the narrative toward a more confident retest of the 70,000 mark, while a rejection near that threshold could set the stage for a more extended consolidation phase with a lower probability of abrupt upside acceleration in the near term.

Within this context, the sentiment around a potential V-shaped reversal around the 66,000 zone adds a layer of conditionality to the near-term outlook. If the market tests 66,000 and manages to hold above that level, the pattern would be consistent with a potential swift reversal, especially if the 69,000–70,000 region remains a magnet for buyers. The interplay between resistances and supports in this zone is delicate: 66,000 to 67,000 has historically acted first as a resistance barrier, then as a source of demand that helps lift prices. The fact that BTC managed to push through this zone in late October, establishing it as a liquidity-rich area, reinforces the idea that future bids could re-enter around this price band if a short-term pullback retests these levels.

In practice, traders rely on the confluence of price action, momentum indicators, and on-chain signals to assess the probability of a renewed leg higher. The HTF structure, in particular, benefits from a sustained closing above 68,500, which would validate the higher-high/higher-low trajectory even as the market navigates the noise around the US election. The 70,000 level remains a psychological and historical resistance that many market participants view as a major milestone that could attract additional interest and potentially accelerate a renewed uptrend, should other macro conditions align favorably. The exact sequencing of events—whether BTC can maintain the critical close or whether it encounters a quick pullback—will shape the near-term risk-reward calculus for both traders and longer-term holders.

It is important to emphasize that, even in a bullish context, the market remains susceptible to sharp, election-driven moves. The volatility premium associated with political events can temporarily distort price discovery, complicating short-term risk management and forcing traders to adapt quickly. The balance sheet of market expectations is thus a dynamic canvas: while the HTF trend provides a sturdy foundation, the near-term action will be highly influenced by the evolving sentiment in traditional markets, risk-on/risk-off rotations, and the evolving stance of policymakers. As the narrative unfolds, market participants will be keenly attuned to how BTC behaves around the critical thresholds of 68,500 and 70,000, as well as how the price reacts to any new information flow following election results and major macro announcements.

Subsection: The role of Fibonacci retracements and key price anchors

The Fibonacci retracement framework continues to provide a useful guide for assessing pullbacks, with the 0.5–0.618 corridor acting as a practical magnet for bids during retracements. In this light, the recent price action reinforces the hypothesis that the golden zone remains a credible anchor for the market’s recovery attempts. Traders often cite these levels as potential initiation points for new swing highs, particularly when macro conditions support risk-on appetite and liquidity conditions are favorable. In addition to the Fibonacci anchors, the 68,500 threshold and the 70,000 level serve as practical targets and decision points for traders who rely on a combination of price action, order flow, and risk management to craft entry and exit strategies.

From a broader perspective, the convergence of multiple signals around these levels—price action within the golden zone, a daily close above 68,500, and a potential break above the 70,000 psychological barrier—would bolster the case for renewed upside momentum. However, this pathway remains contingent on the absence of a sudden, unexpectedly negative macro catalyst or a disruptive shift in liquidity conditions that could dampen demand. The balance of probability suggests a path of continued, measured upside within an overall HTF bullish framework, tempered by the real-time constraints of election volatility and the anatomy of market liquidity at key price levels.

On-chain dynamics and order-book liquidity: how liquidity shapes near-term moves

Beyond the price chart, on-chain data and order-book dynamics offer deeper insight into the mechanics driving Bitcoin’s recent moves. As Bitcoin oscillated around the mid-to-high 60k range, several liquidity characteristics came into focus: persistent demand around the 65,000–66,000 area during the late October rally, the emergence of a liquidity band between 66,000 and 67,000, and the way spot-buy activity interacted with the order book to push prices through resistance thresholds. This section explores how these on-chain and liquidity factors interact to shape BTC’s near-term trajectory, and what they imply for possible continuations or reversals in the wake of the US election.

A core finding from the liquidity lens is that the 65,000–66,000 zone has historically offered robust demand during strong rallies, helping to sustain price gains and enabling BTC to surpass the 70,000 milestone at the end of October. This persistent demand is a signal that buyers are prepared to accumulate in this zone, which primes the market for subsequent upside when overall sentiment remains constructive. In the build-up to the election, that dynamic likely contributed to a floor around 65,000–66,000, as buyers stepped in to defend the zone against further downside and to support a continuation of the uptrend.

The 66,000–67,000 range in particular is a focal point for liquidity and order-book depth. It functioned as a clear resistance area as Bitcoin attempted to push higher, and then as a meaningful support once this resistance was breached. The transition of this zone from resistance to support is significant because it creates a "liquidity corridor" where bids are concentrated and where the market can draw on a dense supply of buy orders if price returns to that region. The implication is that if Bitcoin approaches this area again, buyers could be well-positioned to absorb selling pressure and potentially drive price back toward the next objective levels. In practical trading terms, this liquidity depth acts as a guiding beacon for market participants looking to gauge potential continuation scenarios.

The rally that pushed BTC beyond the ~$69,000 level also highlighted how spot-buy activity and order-flow dynamics can shape the price path in the short term. The presence of aggressive buy pressure in the spot market, especially on major exchanges, can amplify price displacement and lead to a break through nearby resistance zones. This phenomenon underscores the importance of monitoring liquidity and order-book depth, as it provides a real-time map of how much bid support remains at various levels and how orders are likely to respond if price tests critical thresholds. In this context, the 66,000–67,000 zone emerges as a central reference point for potential liquidity-driven reversals or accelerations.

Another layer of the analysis involves the concept of order blocks around 62,000, which interact with the daily moving averages (50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs). An observed order block in this price region suggests a potential point of collective retest for major EMA levels on the daily chart. If price were to drop to around 62,000, a broad re-engagement with the EMA framework could unfold, inviting a retest of longer-term trend lines and potentially triggering a broader risk-off response among traders who rely on EMA-based support as a core part of their risk management toolkit. This scenario becomes particularly relevant if election-driven price action injects volatility and causes a wave of liquidations that could push price down toward the near-term support cluster.

In the current environment, on-chain data and liquidity analysis reinforce the sense that Bitcoin remains in a structurally constructive regime, even as near-term episodes of liquidity-driven volatility complicate short-term price discovery. The key takeaway is that liquidity concentration around the mid-to-high 60k zone is a major feature of the current market, shaping both the risk of pullbacks and the potential for rapid rebounds. For traders, this means that the 66,000–67,000 corridor should be treated as a pivotal zone, with careful attention paid to how price interacts with the zone during any volatility spikes tied to political developments or macro announcements.

Subsection: The role of spot buys and order-book depth in fuelling rallies

During the recent rally that carried BTC above the 69,000 mark, spot-buy activity demonstrated its capacity to translate into tangible price moves. The dynamic of heavy buy orders in the spot market, particularly on prominent exchanges, can push prices higher when order books demonstrate depth and credible liquidity at multiple levels. This is especially relevant in a market environment where participants expect higher volatility due to the election cycle; in such contexts, liquidity depth can become a critical factor in whether price moves have staying power or fade after a brief spike.

The interaction between spot buys and the order book is a core driver of the market’s short-term behavior. When buy-side pressure appears in robust quantity, it can overwhelm sellers and trigger a cascade of stop-loss entries or leveraged long liquidations that further amplify price movement. The takeaway for traders is that a well-supported order book—characterized by buy orders clustered around key levels like 66,000 and 67,000—can provide the backbone for a sustained move higher or, at the very least, a durable bounce from a correction zone. Conversely, if spot-buy activity cools off and bid depth thins in the same zone, the market may struggle to maintain momentum, leading to a retracement toward the next major support cluster.

As the election narrative unfolds, the question becomes whether spot-buy activity can re-emerge with enough vigor to generate another leg higher or whether a period of consolidation will set in as traders reassess risk exposures. The answer will depend on a combination of macro cues, trader sentiment, and the evolving risk appetite across both crypto and traditional markets. In the absence of a strong, sustained bid, BTC could encounter renewed selling pressure near the zone that previously acted as resistance, leading to a test of the lower bands around 65,000–66,000 and potentially deeper corrections if the broader market environment tilts toward risk-off.

Short-term risk and election-driven scenarios: navigating the two-way street of volatility

While the HTF bullish thesis remains intact, the near-term outlook is inevitably tethered to the unfolding political landscape and the resulting volatility in both crypto and traditional markets. This section systematically explores possible outcomes around the US election, the implications for Bitcoin’s price path, and the risk management implications for traders and investors who are seeking to participate in or protect against the anticipated volatility.

A central premise of the near term is that, irrespective of the election result, many market participants maintain that Bitcoin’s longer-term trajectory remains upward. Proponents of this view argue that the increasing maturity of the Bitcoin market, the growing attention from institutional investors, and the potential confirmation of exchange-traded products or ETFs contribute to a structural tailwind that supports higher prices over longer horizons. The underlying logic is that, even if a short-term pullback occurs as traders deleverage, the absence of a systemic negative macro shock could allow Bitcoin to resume its climb once the market digests election noise and regains confidence in the risk-on narrative that has characterized much of the year.

The election introduces a distinct risk factor: the probability of rapid deleveraging as market participants recalibrate exposure in response to political outcomes, policy signals, and potential shifts in regulatory expectations. In a scenario where a Harris victory materializes or an unexpected political outcome dominates headlines, there is a plausible path for a temporary decline as leveraged long positions are trimmed and risk assets reprice. In such a setting, a re-test toward the 62,000 level becomes a credible scenario, given the concentration of leverage observed around that price range during the previous phases of volatility. The mention of a sizable amount of leverage around 62,000 underscores the risk that a swift unwind could trigger a cascade of liquidations that push price down to the lower bounds of key moving averages on the daily chart, especially if the broader market environment exhibits a risk-off tilt.

Another risk factor to consider is the role of order blocks around 62,000, which may function as a magnet for price if selling pressure intensifies and liquidity at higher levels recedes. If price enters this region, a broader retest of the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMA levels on the daily chart could come into play. Such a retest would imply a test of the long-term trend’s integrity and might set up a fresh round of price discovery as the market digests new information. The risk of a prolonged period of volatility is therefore real, especially in the immediate aftermath of an election where surprises can provoke rapid repricing across asset classes.

From a risk-management perspective, the critical takeaway is that traders must remain vigilant for abrupt shifts in liquidity and market sentiment, particularly around the election window. The potential for sudden price swings means that position sizing, stop placement, and diversification across time horizons are essential for preserving capital and enabling participants to participate in the next leg higher if the market confirms a renewed bullish impulse. While the longer-term uptrend remains a plausible baseline, the near-term landscape requires disciplined risk controls and a robust plan for scenario-based trading.

Subsection: Leverage, liquidations, and the 62k risk zone

A salient aspect of the near-term risk landscape is the concentration of leverage around key price thresholds, particularly in the vicinity of 62,000. The presence of substantial leverage at or near this price raises the probability that a move through this level could trigger a cascade of liquidations, exacerbating downward price pressure. Market participants monitoring the liquidation heatmap and related liquidity indicators should pay particular attention to how this zone behaves in the wake of election news and macro developments. If price approaches 62,000 and liquidity is insufficient to absorb selling pressure, a rapid reversion could occur, potentially dragging price toward the 50-day and related EMA levels. Conversely, if buy-side demand or a favorable macro backdrop emerges, a breakout away from 62,000 could catalyze a swift bounce that repositions Bitcoin toward the higher targets.

In any scenario, clear risk management remains essential. Traders who are contemplating short-term positions around the election should consider employing protective stop losses and limiting exposure to highly leveraged trades. The unpredictable nature of the political timetable, combined with the potential for sudden shifts in momentum, makes a cautious approach prudent. In sum, the near-term risk framework requires a careful balancing act: capitalize on the possibility of renewed upside if the election result aligns with bullish sentiment, while maintaining robust risk controls to guard against a rapid deterioration if liquidity dries up or selling pressure intensifies.

ETF sentiment, macro drivers, and the longer-term outlook

Within the spectrum of Bitcoin market drivers, the ETF narrative holds a pivotal place in shaping longer-term expectations and capital flow dynamics. Notably, public commentary from high-profile market participants has underscored a shared conviction that BTC’s trajectory remains upward in the long run, irrespective of who wins the White House race. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, argued that the current ETF trend signals a market that discounting political outcomes in the long term, suggesting that the market full of institutional interest views Bitcoin as a strategic asset rather than a mere risk-on gamble. Cobie, a widely followed crypto trader, has echoed similar sentiments, reinforcing the view that ETF-driven demand and broader institutional adoption will continue to provide a tailwind for Bitcoin over years rather than days.

From a strategic standpoint, the ETF backdrop is important because it can catalyze a structural reallocation toward Bitcoin as a core allocation for many portfolios. The growing legitimacy of Bitcoin-based investment products and the potential for more granular exposure to BTC, either directly or through related instruments, is a force multiplier for demand. In a market where macro conditions remain uncertain yet widely perceived as favorable for growth assets, the ETF narrative contributes to a supportive environment for BTC’s longer-term ascent, even if short-term price action remains volatile around political events or shifting risk sentiment. Importantly, this longer-term bullish impulse does not eliminate the risk of pullbacks or periods of consolidation; rather, it frames those pullbacks as potentially temporary deviations within a broader upward trajectory.

Market participants should also consider how ETF demand interacts with broader macro signals, such as inflation expectations, monetary policy guidance, and global risk appetite. The interplay between ETF-driven inflows and macro catalysts can create a feedback loop: as ETFs attract more capital, Bitcoin’s price can move higher, drawing in additional buyers and institutional interest, which, in turn, supports the ETF’s own growth. Conversely, any setback in macro sentiment or regulatory concerns could dampen the ETF-driven demand, temporarily offsetting price appreciation. In this dynamic, the ETF narrative serves as an anchor for longer-term investors while the election cycle remains the primary driver of near-term volatility and price discovery.

Subsection: Market psychology and cross-asset correlations

Bitcoin’s market psychology has evolved into a more nuanced regime, where it serves as both a risk-on and risk-off instrument depending on the prevailing macro and geopolitical context. Historically, BTC has demonstrated high sensitivity to risk sentiment and equity market flows, yet in recent cycles it has also carved out a unique niche as a potential hedge or diversification asset for some investors. The question of how BTC correlates with broader markets, including equities and traditional safe-haven assets, continues to be a central thread for market participants. Understanding this relationship is critical in assessing the potential responses to election outcomes and other macro shocks.

The election scenario can drive cross-asset flows in ways that influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. If equities rally on a favorable outcome and risk appetite broadens, Bitcoin may benefit from a general risk-on impulse, rising as investors seek non-traditional exposure or new inflation hedges. In contrast, if the election results trigger risk-off winds, BTC could experience a repricing as part of a broad retreat from risk assets. Regardless of short-term direction, the long-run narrative remains oriented toward increased adoption, infrastructure improvements, and the maturation of the market, all of which reinforce Bitcoin’s capacity for higher prices over time.

Trade setups, risk management, and strategic takeaways for investors

Given the complex interplay of HTF bullish structure, on-chain and liquidity dynamics, and macro-driven volatility around the election, traders and investors should anchor their approach in a structured framework. The following key takeaways synthesize the most actionable ideas from the analysis, focusing on entry and exit considerations, risk controls, and scenario planning that align with the current market conditions.

• Watch the 68,500 threshold closely. A daily close above this level within the next 1–2 sessions would be a strong signal that the LTF bullish structure is intact and that the next milestone around 70,000 could be within reach. Remain alert for a quick retest if the market hesitates, ensuring that risk management tools are prepared for a potential pullback before the next leg higher.
• The 66,000–67,000 zone remains a critical liquidity node. If price revisits this region, anticipate either a bounce supported by robust bid depth or a deeper challenge depending on the prevailing market sentiment and momentum. The zone’s history as both resistance and subsequent support makes it a decisive testing ground for near-term direction.
• Be mindful of 62,000 as a potential risk zone due to leverage concentration. If price approaches this level amid election-driven volatility and liquidation risk, develop an exit or hedging plan with clear stop-loss placement and position sizing to withstand a rapid move lower that could trigger broader liquidations.
• Consider the ETF and macro backdrop as a structural tailwind for BTC over the longer term. While the near term may be volatile, the ETF-driven demand could support a multi-quarter or multi-year uptrend, especially if policy signals remain constructive and investor appetite for digital assets remains robust.
• Prepare for a bifurcated outcome scenario around the election. In a favorable outcome, BTC could accelerate toward the 70,000 level and beyond, with shallow or moderate pullbacks. In a risk-off or surprise result scenario, BTC could test critical supports, including 62,000 and the EMA cohort around 50/100/200 days, before establishing a new foothold for the next leg higher.
• Practice disciplined risk management. Given the mix of macro volatility, on-chain dynamics, and potential for rapid price swings, implement prudent position sizing, robust stop losses, and clear exit strategies. Diversify exposures where possible and avoid chasing momentum without a defined risk control framework.

To support a robust trading plan, investors should consider integrated analysis that blends price action with on-chain signals and liquidity metrics. The objective is to identify high-probability setups where the odds of a successful outcome are reinforced by a confluence of technical and fundamental indicators. In this context, a patient, rules-based approach to BTC trading—one that respects the major thresholds and respects risk limits—stands the best chance of capitalizing on the ongoing structural bullishness while safeguarding capital during periods of elevated volatility around the US election.

Conclusion

Bitcoin has navigated a volatile run in the lead-up to the US election, reversing a notable short-term correction while preserving an HTF bullish trajectory that has persisted since September. The critical thresholds—68,500 for a potential LTF confirmation and the 70,000 mark for a psychological upside target—remain central to the near-term narrative. The market’s dynamics around the 66,000–67,000 liquidity zone, the shift of that zone from resistance to support, and the robust on-chain and order-book activity in this region all suggest that Bitcoin’s price discovery remains responsive to liquidity depth and buyer interest, even as election risk injects volatility into daily price action.

The potential for a V-shaped reversal around 66,000 continues to be discussed among market participants, with the outcome heavily contingent on how the election unfolds and how risk assets respond in the wake of new information. While the short-term risk remains heightened due to political uncertainty and leverage concentration around 62,000, the longer-term investment thesis remains supportive. ETF momentum, the maturation of the Bitcoin market, and growing institutional interest collectively frame Bitcoin’s longer-term upside potential, even if the immediate horizon remains clouded by volatility.

Investors and traders should maintain a disciplined, scenario-based approach, leveraging the interplay of technical levels, on-chain signals, and macro cues to navigate the weeks ahead. By focusing on major structural anchors, liquidity zones, and risk controls, market participants can position themselves to participate in any sustained breakout that may emerge from the election-driven period, while also protecting against downside risk if volatility intensifies. The evolving narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s price action will continue to reflect a complex balance of bullish potential and episodic risk, with the near-term path likely to hinge on how the market absorbs election news, liquidity dynamics, and broader macro developments in the days to come.