AI-Driven Ransomware Tops META’s 2025 Threat Landscape, Kaspersky Warns

Kaspersky’s Q1 2025 cybersecurity outlook for the Middle East, Türkiye, and Africa (META) paints a picture of a rapidly moving threat landscape, driven by AI-enabled innovations, ransomware-as-a-service models, and increasingly accessible attack methods. The report reveals that Türkiye and Kenya experienced the highest share of users impacted by web-based threats (26.1% and 20.1%, respectively), while the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan reported comparatively lower levels of web-borne attacks within the region. Against this backdrop, ransomware remains the most pressing cybersecurity danger for organizations, particularly in digitally advanced markets across META. The accelerating pace of digital transformation, expanding attack surfaces, and uneven cybersecurity maturity have contributed to a surge in ransomware victims. In addition to traditional encryption schemes, new actors are adopting double-extortion tactics that combine data encryption with data exfiltration, raising the stakes for victims who must decide how to respond.

Threat landscape in META: regional patterns and overarching drivers

The META region is witnessing a fast-evolving threat ecosystem that blends traditional cybercrime with cutting-edge techniques enabled by artificial intelligence and automation. The latest findings emphasize that web-based threats are not uniform across the region; some markets experience higher exposure due to rapid digital adoption, while others maintain relatively stronger defensive postures and more mature cybersecurity ecosystems. Türkiye and Kenya, for example, show the greatest share of users impacted by web-based threats, signaling both the scale of online activity in these markets and certain vulnerabilities in the security frameworks that accompany rapid digital growth.

Across META, the threat landscape is shaped by rapid digital transformation in sectors spanning government services, finance, telecommunications, and critical infrastructure. As organizations migrate to cloud services, adopt remote work models, and embrace connected devices, the attack surface expands in ways that require cohesive security governance, integrated threat intelligence, and proactive incident response capabilities. The diversity of environments—from highly digitized urban centers to emerging markets with evolving IT maturity—creates a spectrum of risk profiles. In markets with lower reported web-based threats, there often exists a combination of more mature cybersecurity controls, better user awareness, and stronger regulatory regimes, though no region is immune to opportunistic intrusions or targeted campaigns.

A salient trend is the broadening of targets beyond traditional endpoints to include the wider operational ecosystem. Attackers increasingly focus on overlooked or poorly monitored entry points, including Internet of Things (IoT) devices, smart appliances, and misconfigured hardware within the workplace. This shift is a direct consequence of the growing interconnectedness of devices and systems, which expands the potential vectors for intrusion and lateral movement. As a consequence, defenders must move beyond siloed protections for desktops and servers to embrace comprehensive observability across networks, endpoints, cloud environments, and device fleets.

The region is also witnessing the impact of AI-driven development tools that lower the barrier to entry for cybercriminals. Generative AI and automation tools can reduce the technical skill required to craft phishing campaigns, malware payloads, and social engineering schemes. Large language models (LLMs) and other AI-assisted software can generate plausible content, automate code generation, and streamline the creation of targeted campaigns. This democratization of capability enlarges the pool of potential attackers, necessitating more proactive defense measures, including continuous threat intelligence and behavior-based detection.

Kaspersky’s monitoring of 25 active advanced persistent threat (APT) groups in META—including notable actor clusters such as SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater—reflects a broader trend: attackers are adopting more creative exploits and more sophisticated evasion techniques to extend their footholds. Mobile-targeted exploits are rising, alongside ongoing advances in techniques designed to bypass detection. The convergence of mobile-first strategies with traditional network intrusions creates a complex operational landscape for defenders, requiring layered security that spans devices, apps, and infrastructure.

Ransomware: the persistent core threat in 2025

Ransomware remains one of the most dangerous cybersecurity threats for organizations in 2025, with continued growth in digitally advanced markets within the META region. The dynamics fueling this risk are multifaceted. First, digital transformation accelerates the exposure of critical assets across networks, cloud platforms, and remote endpoints. Second, expanding attack surfaces—such as IoT ecosystems, smart devices, and misconfigured hardware—provide attackers with new avenues to reach sensitive data and propagate within networks. Third, there is a notable variance in cybersecurity maturity across organizations, which can translate into inconsistent defenses and delayed detection.

The trend toward more aggressive ransomware campaigns is reinforced by the emergence of ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) models. RaaS lowers the entry barrier for cybercriminals who lack advanced technical capabilities, enabling a broader ecosystem of affiliates to execute attacks with a turnkey toolkit. This commoditization increases both the frequency and scale of intrusions, as operators can distribute risk and leverage shared infrastructure. In this environment, ransom demands can be coupled with data exfiltration and public leak processes, pressuring victims to respond quickly and often discreetly.

Within this evolving landscape, a notable development is the appearance of a new ransomware family or actor referred to as FunkSec. FunkSec has gained notoriety by outperforming rivals like Cl0p and RansomHub, signaling a shift in how threat groups organize and compete for impact. FunkSec operates using a ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) model, combining encryption with exfiltration under a double-extortion paradigm. The group’s operators reportedly rely heavily on AI-generated code—produced with highly polished comments and structure—to facilitate rapid development and deployment of malware. This approach is designed to improve both development speed and evasion capabilities, potentially enabling the group to scale attacks while reducing detection risk.

One of the more impactful aspects of FunkSec’s approach is its preference for a high-volume, low-ransom strategy. Rather than focusing on extremely high ransom demands from a limited set of victims, this model emphasizes broad outreach, frequent campaigns, and comparatively modest ransom amounts. The net effect is an attack framework that is more accessible to a variety of threat actors and harder for defenders to predict or quantify, raising the importance of comprehensive threat detection, rapid response, and resilient backup strategies.

RaaS, by its nature, fosters rapid deployment of campaigns, enabling attackers to tailor payloads, automate distribution, and scale infiltration across multiple targets. The use of AI-generated code contributes to cleaner, more maintainable malware with precise functionality and comments that aid developers in maintaining, updating, and evading detection. The combination of automation, AI assistance, and double-extortion tactics intensifies the pressure on defense teams to identify and disrupt campaigns at earlier stages of intrusion, reducing the likelihood of data leakage and business disruption.

FunkSec and the evolution of ransomware-as-a-service

FunkSec’s emergence illustrates a broader shift in threat actor economics and organization. RaaS platforms combine a malware toolkit with a partner network, financial arrangements, and support services that help affiliates carry out campaigns. This structure distributes risk and rewards, enabling attackers of varying skill levels to participate in large-scale operations. The “double extortion” element—encrypting data and threatening to leak or sell stolen information—adds another layer of leverage, compelling victims to negotiate under pressure and increasing the potential for extortion-driven incident response complexities.

In this environment, defenders must consider the implications of AI-enabled development and automation in weaponizing cyber threats. AI-generated code, with its capacity for plausible syntax, clean architecture, and operator-level comments, can accelerate the lifecycle of a malware family from concept to widespread deployment. For security teams, this means that traditional detection techniques, which may rely on signature-based methods or indicators of compromise (IOCs), must be complemented by behavior-based analytics, network traffic analysis, and robust data protection strategies that resist rapid exploitation across multiple vectors.

The affordability and accessibility of these campaigns also means that smaller or less-resourced organizations are at greater risk of becoming targets. As threat actors lower the cost of entry and broaden their footprint, the focus for defense shifts toward continuous monitoring, rapid containment, and resilient data protection. The adoption of offline or immutable backups, along with rigorous access controls and segmentation, becomes essential to limiting the damage caused by ransomware intrusions.

Emerging trends: new tactics, new targets, new capabilities

Kaspersky’s outlook highlights several emerging trends that warrant close attention. Ransomware actors are increasingly creative and stealthy, looking to exploit unconventional vulnerabilities that put organizations off guard. The Akira gang, for instance, demonstrated how attackers can leverage a webcam-based bypass to sidestep endpoint detection systems, illustrating that even consumer-grade devices with cameras can become intrusion points if not properly secured. This example underscores the need for comprehensive device hygiene, continuous vulnerability management, and strict control over all endpoints within a network.

Attackers are broadening their focus to overlooked entry points beyond traditional PCs and servers. IoT devices, smart appliances, and misconfigured hardware in corporate environments present sizable attack surfaces. As ecosystems grow more interconnected, the risk of lateral movement and data exfiltration increases, calling for unified security approaches that monitor and protect the entire device ecosystem, from edge devices to cloud services.

The rise of generative AI and development tools such as robotic process automation (RPA) and LowCode platforms is lowering barriers for less technically proficient threat actors. LLMs marketed on the dark web can help criminals craft malicious code, phishing campaigns, and social engineering content at scale. This capability also enables automated ransomware deployment, which can reduce the time between initial access and payload execution while enabling attackers to adapt quickly to countermeasures. For defenders, this translates into a heightened need for proactive threat hunting, AI-powered detection, and rapid incident response.

In response to these shifts, security operations centers (SOCs) must evolve. Access to up-to-date threat intelligence and continuous upskilling for security teams is essential to detect, analyze, and disrupt new campaigns. The convergence of AI-assisted attack tooling with rapid deployment capabilities means defenders must invest in automated defenses, real-time analytics, and well-practiced playbooks for containment and recovery.

Active APT groups in META: scope, methods, and defense implications

Kaspersky’s ongoing monitoring identifies 25 active advanced persistent threat groups operating in the META region. Among these, SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater are highlighted for their evolving techniques and persistent threat behavior. These groups demonstrate a growing propensity for creative exploits targeting mobile devices, reflecting a broader trend toward mobile-centric invasion strategies. The ongoing improvements in evasion techniques—designed to bypass traditional detection tools—require defenders to implement multi-layered security controls that extend to mobile endpoints, as well as more robust post-compromise detection.

The presence of mobile-focused exploits emphasizes the need for secure mobile device management, patching of mobile operating systems, and rigorous control over mobile applications and data permissions. Attackers often exploit misconfigurations, outdated software, or insufficient device hardening to establish footholds that can be leveraged for data exfiltration or command-and-control (C2) operations. Organizations must consider endpoint security not just for PCs and servers, but for the entire array of endpoints that connect to corporate networks.

Additionally, the sophistication of these APT groups underscores the importance of threat intelligence sharing and collaboration across sectors. Insights into attacker TTPs (tactics, techniques, and procedures), exploitation methods, and command-and-control infrastructure enable organizations to anticipate attack patterns and implement targeted defenses. A proactive posture—encompassing network segmentation, application whitelisting, and continuous monitoring—helps reduce dwell time and containment delays when compromised assets are detected.

Recommendations for organizations: practical steps to strengthen resilience

Kaspersky’s guidance emphasizes a proactive, defense-forward approach to mitigating ransomware and broader cyber threats in META. The company’s recommendations are designed to help organizations reduce exposure, accelerate detection, and shorten recovery times. Below is a structured set of action items compiled from the guidance, organized to support immediate, mid-term, and long-term security goals.

• Keep software up to date on all devices and systems

  • Establish a centralized patch management process that prioritizes critical vulnerabilities and known exploit windows.
  • Apply updates promptly, using testing and staging environments to minimize business disruption before deployment.
  • Enforce automatic updates where feasible, while ensuring compatibility with key business applications.

• Build a defense sphere focused on detecting lateral movement and data exfiltration

  • Deploy behavior-based analytics that monitor unusual internal movement, credential reuse, and anomalous data transfers.
  • Segment networks to restrict lateral movement and limit the blast radius of any breach.
  • Implement robust monitoring for data exfiltration attempts, including sensitive data discovery and data loss prevention (DLP) controls.

• Establish offline, tamper-resistant backups

  • Maintain immutable backups that attackers cannot tamper with or encrypt during an intrusion.
  • Regularly test restoration procedures to ensure rapid recovery in the event of an incident.
  • Segment backup storage from primary networks to reduce the risk of ransomware propagation to backups.

• Equip the SOC team with up-to-date threat intelligence and ongoing skills development

  • Subscribe to credible threat intelligence feeds and ensure analysts receive timely alerts on emerging campaigns.
  • Conduct regular training exercises, red-team/blue-team drills, and tabletop simulations to sharpen response Playbooks.
  • Foster a culture of continuous learning, with a focus on evolving attacker techniques, indicators of compromise, and safe incident response practices.

• Leverage comprehensive security platforms that integrate real-time protection and analytics

  • Utilize platforms that offer real-time protection, threat intelligence, and automated responses to suspicious activity.
  • Integrate security tools across endpoints, networks, and cloud environments to achieve centralized visibility.
  • Align security investments with an enterprise risk management framework, ensuring that security controls are proportionate to risk.

• Strengthen governance, risk, and compliance (GRC) alignment

  • Update security policies to reflect current threat landscapes, including ransomware and advanced persistent threats.
  • Implement formal incident response plans and business continuity strategies that cover supply chain dependencies and critical operations.
  • Regularly assess regulatory requirements and align security controls with industry standards to maintain compliance.

• Embrace zero-trust principles and device hardening

  • Enforce strict access controls, continuous authentication, and least-privilege policies across all users and devices.
  • Harden all endpoints, including IoT and field devices, with secure configurations, firmware updates, and vulnerability remediation.
  • Monitor for misconfigurations and insecure hardware, and fix weaknesses promptly.

• Consider adopting integrated security platforms such as Kaspersky Next

  • Real-time protection and threat intelligence capabilities can help detect and mitigate threats quickly.
  • A unified platform approach enables streamlined incident response, threat hunting, and security orchestration.
  • Regularly review platform performance, update rules, and adapt to the evolving threat landscape.

• Prioritize user awareness and phishing resistance

  • Implement ongoing security awareness training that emphasizes phishing detection and social engineering recognition.
  • Simulate phishing campaigns to keep users vigilant and reinforce best practices for handling suspicious emails and links.
  • Leverage user education as a critical line of defense alongside technical controls.

• Plan for resilience through cyber insurance and disaster recovery

  • Assess insurance coverage that aligns with ransomware risk, data breach response, and business interruption scenarios.
  • Integrate cyber insurance with incident response plans and recovery objectives to ensure rapid, effective remediation.

These recommendations are designed to be actionable and scalable across organizations of varying sizes and sectors within the META region. By combining strong operations security practices with modern threat intelligence and AI-enabled defenses, organizations can improve their posture against ransomware, APT incursions, and emerging cyber threats.

Conclusion

The Q1 2025 cybersecurity outlook for META underscores a landscape that is increasingly shaped by AI-enabled innovation, expansive attack surfaces, and the strategic evolution of ransomware campaigns. The region’s diverse maturity levels and rapid digital adoption create opportunities for attackers while also signaling a pressing need for robust, multi-layered defenses. The emergence of FunkSec as a notable RaaS-driven actor, the continued rise of double-extortion tactics, and the deployment of AI-generated malware highlight how attackers are adapting to new technologies and market dynamics. At the same time, attackers are probing less traditional entry points, including IoT devices, smart hardware, and compromised mobile endpoints, which calls for a holistic approach to security that encompasses devices, networks, and data.

For organizations in META, proactive measures—ranging from timely software updates and rigorous backup strategies to advanced threat intelligence and skilled SOC teams—are essential to reduce risk and minimize impact. As APT groups pursue novel exploits and mobile-focused capabilities, defenders must embrace continuous improvement, adopt zero-trust principles, and invest in integrated security platforms that provide real-time protection and rapid incident response. By combining strategic planning with practical, daily security habits, organizations can strengthen their resilience against evolving ransomware threats and the broader spectrum of cyber risks that define today’s digital landscape.