AI-Driven Ransomware Leads META’s 2025 Cyber Threats, Fueled by RaaS, Double Extortion and AI-Generated Code, Kaspersky Warns

Kaspersky’s Q1 2025 outlook for the META region—covering the Middle East, Türkiye, and Africa—paints a rapidly changing threat landscape where artificial intelligence-driven tools, ransomware-as-a-service models, and affordable attack methods are accelerating risk for organizations of all sizes. The findings reveal regional disparities in exposure to web-based threats, with Türkiye and Kenya recording the highest shares of users impacted at 26.1 percent and 20.1 percent respectively, while the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan register the lowest levels of web-borne attacks in the region. This evolving environment underscores the need for heightened vigilance, proactive defense strategies, and continuous adaptation to shifting attacker playbooks.

Overview of the META threat landscape in Q1 2025

The global cybersecurity picture is increasingly defined by the convergence of AI-enabled development, rapid digital transformation, and complex, multi-vector attack surfaces. In META, this convergence is accelerating threat activity and broadening the range of tactics available to adversaries. Ransomware remains a central axis of risk for businesses as they navigate digital modernization, with attackers targeting a spectrum of organizations—from digitally mature enterprises to smaller firms that may lack mature cybersecurity controls. The report emphasizes that rapid digital transformation creates expanding attack surfaces, while varying levels of cybersecurity maturity across the region influence exposure and resilience. As a result, threat actors are compelled to pursue more scalable, lower-cost methodologies that enable broader reach without proportionally increasing cost or effort.

Within this context, attackers are leveraging the most cost-effective tools and pathways to maximize impact. The shift toward ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) means that sophisticated capabilities can be accessed by actors who lack deep technical backgrounds, lowering the barrier to entry and enabling broader participation in ransomware campaigns. This trend aligns with observations of rising automation and the growing integration of AI-assisted development workflows—tools that streamline coding, payload customization, and evasion strategies. As a result, even smaller threat groups can deploy complex ransomware operations that once required large development teams and substantial infrastructure.

The regional distribution of web threats highlights a nuanced threat environment. Türkiye and Kenya stand out for the proportion of users affected by web-based threats, signaling a combination of factors such as broad internet use, online behaviors, and the presence of threat actors targeting commonly accessed online surfaces. In contrast, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan report comparatively lower levels of web-borne attacks, suggesting differences in threat actor focus, security maturity, user behavior, or the effectiveness of preventative measures. These disparities underscore the importance of region-specific defense strategies that account for local threat actor ecosystems, digital adoption rates, and organizational cybersecurity maturity.

Ransomware continues to be among the most dangerous threats facing businesses in 2025, particularly in digitally advanced markets within the Middle East and its surrounding regions. The META region is experiencing a noticeable uptick in ransomware victims driven by three interrelated drivers: rapid digital transformation that broadens attack surfaces, expanding attack surfaces that accompany increased connectivity and device proliferation, and varying levels of cybersecurity maturity across enterprises and industries. In this context, attackers are increasingly employing data exfiltration as part of double extortion schemes, encrypting data to block access while simultaneously threatening or executing data leaks to pressure victim organizations into paying ransoms. This dual-threat approach magnifies the potential for reputational damage, regulatory consequences, and operational disruption, reinforcing the case for robust backup strategies and rigorous incident response planning.

A notable development highlighted by Kaspersky is the emergence of a ransomware group named FunkSec, which has quickly garnered notoriety for surpassing some well-established groups in terms of impact and visibility. FunkSec operates using a ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) model, which democratizes access to sophisticated ransomware capabilities. In its operational approach, FunkSec deploys double extortion tactics—combining encryption with data exfiltration—and it leans heavily on AI-generated code with clear, well-commented outputs. This last point, reportedly produced by large language models (LLMs), is aimed at streamlining development, expediting payload creation, and complicating detection efforts. The group’s method of leveraging AI-generated code suggests a maturation of ransomware development practices, where automated code generation reduces the time from concept to deployment while increasing the precision of obfuscation and evasion techniques.

Another critical insight from the outlook is FunkSec’s strategic emphasis on a high-volume, low-ransom model. Rather than pursuing a handful of high-value targets with steep ransom demands, FunkSec prioritizes a broader attack footprint with smaller ransom demands. This approach can enhance scalability and accessibility for threat actors, enabling consistency in operations and rapid iteration across campaigns. The combination of a higher attack volume, lower ransom thresholds, and AI-assisted development points to a shift in ransomware economics that could alter risk calculus for organizations in META and beyond. The broader implication is a need for not only stronger per-incident defenses but also improved threat intelligence and real-time monitoring to detect the probabilistic and automated patterns associated with these campaigns.

Kaspersky also notes that ransomware operators are becoming increasingly creative and stealthy, with a propensity to exploit unconventional or overlooked vulnerabilities. The Akira gang serves as a cautionary example, having leveraged a webcam-based bypass technique to defeat endpoint detection systems and breach networks. This case illustrates the growing creativity of attackers in identifying entry points that may be outside traditional perimeter controls. It also highlights the necessity for defenders to diversify detection strategies beyond standard file-based indicators, incorporating monitors for unusual device behaviors, webcam activity anomalies, and other non-traditional vectors that could indicate intrusion attempts.

The threat surface continues to expand as attackers increasingly target overlooked entry points such as Internet of Things (IoT) devices, smart home appliances, and misconfigured hardware within the workplace. The expanded inventory of connected devices amplifies potential compromise routes, particularly when devices operate with weak or absent security configurations. The broader ecosystem, characterized by interconnected systems and devices, creates more opportunities for attackers to exploit misconfigurations, weak credentials, or insecure firmware. This expansion underscores the urgency for comprehensive asset management, secure device configurations, and continuous monitoring across both traditional endpoints and the broader network of connected devices.

The surge of generative AI and related development tools—such as Robotic Process Automation (RPA) and Low-Code platforms—further lowers the barrier to entry for less-skilled threat actors. Large language models advertised or sold on the dark web can be employed to generate malicious code, craft phishing campaigns, and automate social engineering tasks. These tools also enable attackers to automate ransomware deployment, improving scalability and traceability in their campaigns. The result is a threat landscape in which even individuals or small groups with limited technical expertise can orchestrate increasingly sophisticated attacks, creating amplification effects for organizations’ defensive requirements.

Kaspersky’s ongoing monitoring includes 25 active advanced persistent threat (APT) groups operating in the META region, among them SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater. These groups are demonstrating a growing appetite for creative exploits that target mobile devices, alongside ongoing advances in techniques designed to evade detection. The emphasis on mobile-targeted exploits reflects the mobility-first reality of modern work environments, where smartphones and tablets are critical tools for operations, communication, and access to enterprise resources. As attackers refine mobile-focused techniques, defenders must adapt by extending visibility, controls, and response capabilities to mobile ecosystems as part of a holistic cybersecurity strategy.

In aggregate, the META outlook for Q1 2025 depicts a threat landscape characterized by AI-enabled tooling, diversified attack vectors, and a ransomware ecosystem that favors rapid, scalable campaigns. The combination of RaaS, double extortion tactics, and increasing automation suggests a new norm in which attackers can execute broad campaigns with limited resource constraints, elevating the importance of proactive defense, continuous learning, and cross-functional collaboration across security, IT, and business units.

Ransomware focus: FunkSec and the evolving ransomware market

The ransomware narrative in META is increasingly dominated by the emergence of new players and the adoption of more sophisticated, automated workflows. FunkSec has emerged as a salient example of a modern ransomware actor that embodies several key shifts in attacker economics and operational tactics. The group’s alignment with a ransomware-as-a-service model means that it provides a ready-to-use toolkit or infrastructure to support campaigns, lowering technical barriers for affiliates and operators who wish to participate in ransomware operations without building everything from scratch. This model is consistent with broader industry observations about RaaS as a force multiplier that expands the attacker pool.

A distinctive characteristic of FunkSec is its emphasis on double extortion—an approach that encrypts victim data while also exfiltrating it and threatening public release or sale of the data. This tactic significantly increases the pressure on victims, creating a dual risk that extends beyond operational downtime to potential regulatory and reputational damage. The group’s use of AI-generated code, with highly legible comments and structured outputs—likely produced by large language models—illustrates how AI-assisted development can accelerate payload creation while potentially improving code quality, making it harder for defenders to spot malicious logic within complex scripts and modules.

The strategy of high-volume, low-ransom campaigns is another notable facet of FunkSec’s operations. Rather than concentrating on a small set of high-value targets and demanding large sums, FunkSec emphasizes breadth, targeting numerous victims with comparatively modest ransoms. This approach can yield consistent revenue streams and reduce the risk exposure associated with chasing a handful of high-profile victims. From a defender’s perspective, the popularity of low-ransom campaigns means more frequent encounters with extortion attempts, requiring robust, scalable incident response playbooks and improved detection across a wider index of indicators of compromise.

FunkSec’s rapid ascendance relative to established groups such as Cl0p and RansomHub underscores a broader trend in which new entrants leverage RaaS platforms, AI-assisted tooling, and monetization strategies that prioritize speed and reach. The implications for organizations are clear: threat models must account for the likelihood of more numerous, opportunistic campaigns that leverage automation and AI to optimize delivery, execution, and evasion. This means investing in faster detection and response, as well as ensuring that security teams have access to real-time, actionable threat intelligence that can inform containment and remediation efforts as campaigns unfold.

Attackers’ increasing reliance on AI-enhanced capabilities also raises questions about defense in depth and the need for AI-aware security operations. Traditional approaches that rely on signature-based detection may be insufficient to counter AI-generated payloads that exhibit novel or adaptive behaviors. Instead, defenders must adopt multi-layered defenses that integrate behavioral analytics, machine learning-enhanced anomaly detection, network segmentation, and rigorous data protection controls. In practice, this means strengthening the resilience of backup systems, improving data loss prevention measures, and ensuring that incident response teams can quickly identify, isolate, and disinfect compromised assets while maintaining business continuity.

Beyond the ransomware ecology, the rising sophistication of RaaS and double extortion tactics has implications for the entire cybercrime ecosystem. As threat actors proliferate, there is a cascading effect on supply chains, third-party risk management, and vendor assessments. Organizations must increasingly consider not only their internal security posture but also the security practices of partner organizations and service providers. Because attackers frequently target those with the most accessible attack surfaces—such as exposed network services, misconfigured devices, and insufficient patching—comprehensive risk assessments and continuous monitoring of third-party ecosystems become essential components of a resilient security architecture.

The outlook also emphasizes the importance of threat intelligence pipelines and proactive defense. For organizations in META, it is critical to stay ahead of emerging patterns, such as AI-assisted code generation, anonymized exploit development, and the commodification of ransomware tools via RaaS platforms. Proactive defense includes gathering and operationalizing intelligence about attacker TTPs (tactics, techniques, and procedures), testing defenses against realistic adversaries, and integrating threat feeds into SOC workflows so that analysts can identify and respond to evolving threats in real time. As the threat landscape evolves, so too must the defensive playbook, moving toward automated, AI-augmented detection and rapid containment to minimize business impact.

Emerging trends and attack vectors

The META threat landscape is expanding beyond traditional ransomware infection chains into a broader array of attack vectors, driven by attacker ingenuity and the availability of powerful development tools. One notable example is the Akira gang, which demonstrated how a single unconventional vulnerability—in this case, a webcam-based bypass—can compromise an endpoint detection system and give attackers a foothold inside networks. This case underscores the vulnerability of endpoint protection when confronted with non-traditional entry points and highlights the need for holistic detection strategies that monitor device behaviors at the edge as well as in the core network.

Attackers are increasingly targeting overlooked entry points that sit at the periphery of enterprise networks. IoT devices, smart appliances, and misconfigured hardware in workplaces represent fertile ground for exploitation due to the sheer number of devices, often weak default configurations, and infrequent patching. The broader interconnected environment affords attackers more pathways to pivot laterally, escalate privileges, and exfiltrate data. To mitigate these risks, defenders must implement comprehensive asset discovery and continuous configuration management, ensuring that all devices—ranging from enterprise servers to consumer-grade IoT endpoints—are properly secured and monitored for anomalous activity.

The rise of generative AI and development tools is a double-edged sword: it enables rapid, scalable cybercrime while also providing defenders with improved tools for detection and defense. On the attacker side, LLMs and other AI systems lower the technical barrier for creating malicious code, phishing content, and social engineering messages. This democratization of capability means a broader set of actors can execute sophisticated campaigns with less specialized expertise. On the defense side, AI-assisted security platforms can enhance threat hunting, anomaly detection, and response orchestration, enabling security teams to identify subtle indicators of compromise that might elude manual analysis. The balance between offensive and defensive AI capabilities will shape the pace and severity of cyber threats in META and other regions.

Automating ransomware deployment is another trend noted by Kaspersky. Automation reduces the cycle time from initial access to encryption and exfiltration, enabling attackers to scale campaigns and launch more consistently. This acceleration heightens the urgency for organizations to implement automated security controls, rapid detection, and resilient backup strategies so that incident response can keep pace with fast-moving threats. The combination of automation and scalable attack models challenges traditional response paradigms and calls for more dynamic, intelligence-driven defenses that can adapt to evolving campaigns in real time.

Kaspersky’s monitoring of 25 active APT groups in the META region—such as SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater—highlights a continued emphasis on mobile-focused exploits and the evolution of evasion techniques. These groups show a growing appetite for exploiting mobile ecosystems, which have become essential for business communications and access to corporate resources. The ongoing arms race between attacker innovation and defender capabilities in mobile environments calls for enhanced mobile threat defense, strict application controls, and rigorous device security policies that extend beyond the traditional corporate perimeter.

The emergent picture is one of a dynamic and increasingly complex threat environment where ransomware, RaaS, AI-assisted tooling, and flexible attacker business models intersect. Organizations in META must contend with a shift from purely destructive aims toward multi-faceted extortion, data leakage, and persistent presence across diverse device ecosystems. The expanding attack surface requires an integrated approach to security that encompasses endpoint, network, identity, and data protection, with a strong emphasis on proactive threat intelligence, continuous monitoring, and rapid incident response.

Threat actors and APT activity in META

The META region’s threat actor ecosystem remains robust and varied, with a substantial audience of both established and emergent players pursuing persistent campaigns. The documented presence of 25 active APT groups underlines the region’s exposure to organized, state-aligned, and financially motivated campaigns. Among these groups, SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater are frequently cited as notable actors contributing to the region’s threat landscape through constant refinement of their techniques and sustained reconnaissance activities.

These APT groups are increasingly leveraging mobile devices as components of their operation. The drive to exploit mobility reflects the central role of smartphones and tablets in contemporary work styles, where remote access, collaboration, and cloud-based services are integral to business operations. In response, defensive strategies must extend to mobile endpoints, ensuring that mobile threat detection, secure application management, and device hygiene are embedded into enterprise security programs.

Attack techniques associated with these groups show a blend of traditional and novel approaches. While some campaigns rely on well-known vector classes such as phishing, credential theft, and malware delivery, there is a clear trend toward more creative and adaptive exploitation. This includes targeting misconfigurations, supply chain weaknesses, and the exploitation of weak or weakly defended endpoints and devices in hybrid and remote work scenarios. The continued evolution of evasion methods—aimed at bypassing detection in both local and cloud environments—demands a more sophisticated defensive posture that integrates behavioral analytics, anomaly detection, and layered authentication safeguards.

Geopolitical and economic factors influence APT activity in META, shaping the priorities and targets of groups, including those with nation-state sponsorship and those driven by financial gain. The presence of multiple APT actors intensifies the competition for intelligence and the pressure on organizations to reduce dwell time and minimize exposure. To counter this, organizations should implement multi-layer defense-in-depth strategies that leverage threat intelligence to identify likely TTPs used by prominent groups, align security investments with the most probable risks, and maintain a state of readiness to respond to both opportunistic and persistent campaigns.

In practice, this means organizations should invest in end-to-end security visibility that spans endpoints, networks, apps, and cloud environments. Proactive threat hunting, regular red-teaming exercises, and simulated breach scenarios can help validate defenses against the tactics used by SideWinder, Origami Elephant, MuddyWater, and their peers. Coordinated defense also requires information-sharing arrangements with trusted partners, sector-specific information-sharing and analysis centers, and internal governance that ensures timely patching, vulnerability management, and secure software development practices. As adversaries evolve, security teams must evolve too, keeping pace with the latest attacker techniques and maintaining a vigilant posture against the continuous risk of compromise.

Recommendations for organizations

Kaspersky’s guidance for organizations in the META region centers on practical, actionable steps designed to reduce exposure to ransomware, intrusions through overlooked entry points, and the risks associated with increasingly automated, AI-enabled threats. The recommendations are framed to support organizations of all sizes and sectors, recognizing that cyber risk affects both digitally mature enterprises and smaller businesses with developing security programs.

Key recommendations include:

• Always keep software updated on all devices in use. Regular patching and updates reduce exploitable vulnerabilities and close gaps that ransomware and other malware frequently exploit. The practice should extend beyond traditional endpoints to include IoT devices, smart appliances, wearables, and any networked instruments within the organization’s environment. A comprehensive patch management process, coupled with continuous vulnerability scanning, helps ensure that systems operate with the latest protections, reducing the window of opportunity for attackers to exploit known weaknesses.

• Focus defense efforts on detecting lateral movements and data exfiltration. Modern ransomware campaigns often rely on internal reconnaissance and privilege escalation to move through networks undetected. Detection strategies must emphasize behaviors such as unusual authentication patterns, rapid credential reuse, and data exfiltration attempts, as well as timeline-based indicators that reveal the progression of an attacker’s move from initial access to critical assets. Deploy and tune behavioral analytics that can distinguish legitimate activity from attacker-initiated movement, and ensure that response playbooks escalate quickly when anomalous lateral activity is observed.

• Set up offline backups that intruders cannot tamper with. Data resilience is essential when facing ransomware threats. Offline, immutable backups provide a reliable recovery point even if attackers compromise primary storage or alter online backups. Organization-wide backup strategies should incorporate redundancy across multiple locations and media types, verification processes to confirm backup integrity, and routine restoration drills to validate operational recovery capabilities. Emphasizing air-gapped or offline backups can mitigate the risk of data loss and support faster, safer restoration after an incident.

• Provide SOC teams with access to the latest threat intelligence and regularly upskill them. The dynamic threat landscape requires security operations centers (SOCs) to stay current with evolving attacker TTPs. Regular training, participation in threat intelligence feeds, and practical simulations ensure analysts can recognize emerging patterns, understand attacker methodologies, and respond promptly. Upskilling should cover not only technical malware analysis and incident response but also threat modeling, risk assessment, and cross-functional coordination with IT, legal, and business units.

• Leverage Kaspersky Next, a security platform that delivers real-time protection and threat intelligence. The adoption of advanced security platforms can enhance visibility across endpoints, networks, and cloud environments. A modern security suite should include real-time monitoring, proactive threat detection, automated response capabilities, and integration with threat intelligence feeds to enable rapid containment. An enterprise-grade platform can simplify security operations, improve correlation of alerts, and accelerate remediation.

• Integrate a practical, cross-functional approach to risk management and resilience. Given the diversity of attack vectors—from AI-generated code to IoT device exploitation—defense-in-depth must be complemented by business continuity planning, data governance, and regulatory compliance considerations. Organizations should align cybersecurity with risk management frameworks, conduct regular tabletop exercises, and ensure that incident response, disaster recovery, and crisis communications plans are tested and kept up to date.

• Emphasize the importance of supply chain and third-party risk management. The prevalence of RaaS, double extortion, and targeted campaigns means partner ecosystems can become attack surfaces. A robust third-party risk program should include vendor risk assessments, security requirements in contracts, verification of vendor security controls, and ongoing monitoring of supplier networks to minimize the risk introduced by external entities.

• Foster a culture of security awareness and phishing resilience. While technical controls are essential, employee behavior remains a critical line of defense. Regular training on identifying phishing attempts, social engineering, and suspicious links reduces the likelihood of initial access being granted to attackers. Organizations should incorporate simulated phishing exercises and clear escalation procedures to ensure employees participate in ongoing security education.

• Prepare for rapid response with well-defined playbooks and drills. Incident response readiness involves having clearly documented playbooks that define roles, communication protocols, containment steps, and recovery procedures. Regular drills with internal teams and, where appropriate, external partners can build muscle memory, shorten containment times, and reduce the business impact of disruptions caused by ransomware or other attacks.

In practice, organizations should tailor these recommendations to their risk profile, digital maturity, and sector-specific threat exposures. A proactive, intelligence-informed security program that emphasizes resilience, rapid detection, and effective response will be better positioned to withstand evolving ransomware and cyber threats in META.

Practical steps for implementation and ongoing resilience

To operationalize the recommendations, organizations can pursue a structured program that combines governance, technology, and people. The program begins with a comprehensive assessment of current security posture, including asset inventories, patch management effectiveness, endpoint protection coverage, and data protection controls. It continues with the design of a layered security architecture that emphasizes zero-trust principles, segmentation, and least-privilege access, ensuring that even if attackers penetrate one layer, they face significant barriers to movement.

Next, organizations should implement ongoing threat intelligence collection and integration into SOC workflows. This includes subscribing to reputable threat feeds, subscribing to advisories from trusted vendors, and correlating intelligence with internal telemetry to identify emerging risks that specifically affect META. The SOC should be equipped to detect early indicators of compromise, track attacker TTPs, and trigger automated or semi-automated containment actions as appropriate.

Asset and device management must be enhanced to reduce exposure from overlooked endpoints. This involves continuous visibility into connected devices, enforcing secure configurations, and applying consistent security baselines across all managed devices, including IoT and consumer-grade hardware deployed in enterprise environments. Vulnerability management processes should be automated and prioritized according to risk, with remediation timelines aligned to business criticality.

Backup and disaster recovery programs require ongoing validation. Regularly test backup restoration in a controlled environment to ensure data integrity and restore speed, and confirm that offline backups remain immutable and protected from tampering. The testing cadence should align with regulatory requirements, business continuity objectives, and the organization’s tolerance for downtime.

Security training and awareness programs need to be embedded in the organizational culture. Employees should receive ongoing education about current attack techniques, social engineering, and secure practices for remote work. Training should be complemented by practical exercises that simulate real-world scenarios and measure improvements in detection, reporting, and response times.

Finally, governance and stakeholder alignment are essential. Security initiatives must be tied to business risk, with clear metrics for success and regular reporting to executive leadership. The security program should maintain a risk register, track progress against defined milestones, and adapt to changing threat conditions. Collaboration between IT, security, legal, compliance, and operational teams ensures that security investments deliver tangible risk reduction while supporting business objectives.

Conclusion

The Q1 2025 META outlook from Kaspersky confirms a fast-evolving threat landscape driven by AI-enabled tools, RaaS models, and increasingly accessible attack methods. Türkiye and Kenya lead regional web-threat exposure, while the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan show comparatively lower levels of web-borne attacks. Ransomware remains a dominant threat, with FunkSec illustrating a new wave of AI-assisted, double-extortion campaigns that leverage automated code generation and high-volume, lower-ransom models. Emerging trends include the exploitation of unconventional entry points, the growth of IoT and misconfigured devices as attack vectors, and the broader use of generative AI to enable less-skilled actors and scale campaigns. APT groups such as SideWinder, Origami Elephant, and MuddyWater continue to push the envelope in terms of mobile-focused exploits and evasion techniques, emphasizing the need for comprehensive, agile defenses that span endpoints, networks, and mobile ecosystems.

In light of these dynamics, organizations in META should pursue a holistic defense strategy that combines up-to-date patching, robust detection of lateral movement and data exfiltration, offline backups, access to current threat intelligence, and ongoing skills development for security teams. The use of advanced security platforms and a proactive, intelligence-driven security program will help organizations stay ahead of evolving threats, reduce dwell time, and maintain resilience in the face of AI-enabled ransomware and increasingly sophisticated attacker playbooks. As attacker methodologies continue to mature, a coordinated, cross-functional approach to cybersecurity—grounded in continuous learning, practical drills, and strong governance—will be essential to protecting digital assets, preserving business continuity, and safeguarding stakeholder trust in the META region and beyond.