Ether May Struggle to Deliver Meaningful Rallies in 2025, According to 10x Research

As the year draws to a close, analysts are sharing their predictions for Ethereum’s performance in 2025. According to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, Ether might not be the wisest investment choice for a bull run next year, as it may deliver underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin.

Ethereum’s Underperformance Against Bitcoin

While some analysts are waiting for more confirmation from price charts before making predictions, Thielen is clear in his assessment. "We wouldn’t be surprised if Ethereum struggles to deliver meaningful rallies next year," he said in a December 30 market report. "As a result, our stance on Ethereum remains clear: ‘avoid.’”

Thielen points to several metrics that suggest Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin may continue in 2025. One of the most important metrics to watch will be the trend in active validators. However, he notes that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, dropping by about 1% over the past 30 days. This raises concerns about the increasing risk of more validators exiting the network.

Active Validators: A Concern for Ethereum

Thielen’s comments are echoed by others in the industry who are concerned about the trend of active validators on the Ethereum network. Attestant’s chief business officer, Tim Lowe, recently told Cointelegraph that demand for Ether can easily increase with refined marketing and a unified value proposition.

Demand for Ether: A Catalyst for Growth

Lowe sees diversification from Bitcoin as a simple catalyst for Ethereum’s growth. "Ether underperformed against Bitcoin," he notes, pointing to the data from CoinMarketCap showing that while Bitcoin is up 121.4% since January 1, 2024, Ether clocked a 46.3% return over the same period.

The Impact of ETFs on Ethereum’s Price

Thielen also points to the impact of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum. When US Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, they were met with strong demand that helped push Bitcoin’s price to new highs within two months.

Ethereum’s Lacking Catalysts

Thielen is skeptical about several potential catalysts for Ethereum’s growth in 2025. He notes that the Duncan upgrade in March reduced gas fees and allowed the network to handle more transactions, but "arrived six months too late" to make a significant impact.

Pectra Upgrade: A Potential Catalyst?

Thielen is also skeptical of the Pectra upgrade, which is due to be introduced in early 2025. He notes that only two upgrades so far have had a notable positive impact on price, and even those occurred during Bitcoin bull markets.

Ethereum’s Price Outlook: Uncertainty Ahead

While Thielen is bearish on Ethereum’s prospects for 2025, other analysts are more bullish. Pseudonymous crypto trader Cold Blooded Schiller said in a December 31 X post that Ether has been "rangebound" since December 25 and one of two scenarios is likely to play out: either a breakout or a breakdown.

Breaking Out or Breaking Down?

Schiller’s scenario is echoed by pseudonymous crypto trader Dal, who also sees two possible outcomes for Ethereum’s price in 2025. "Compressing hard, I think if we flip 3,554 and we go back to 4k if we can’t flip, I think we can sweep 3,102," he said in a December 31 X post.

MN Capital Founder Michael van de Poppe: Bullish on Ether

However, not all analysts are as bearish on Ethereum’s prospects. MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe is more bullish and sees signs of breaking out relative to Bitcoin in January 2025.

Breaking Through the 0.04 Barrier?

Van de Poppe said that he "wouldn’t be surprised if $ETH / $BTC breaks through 0.04 in January." At the time of publication, the ETH/BTC ratio was 0.03571, according to TradingView data.

Conclusion: Uncertainty Ahead for Ethereum’s Price

As the year draws to a close, analysts are weighing in on Ethereum’s performance in 2025. While some are bearish and predict underwhelming returns compared to Bitcoin, others are more bullish and see potential catalysts for growth. Ultimately, the future of Ethereum’s price remains uncertain.

This article is for general information purposes only and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

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