Open Interest on CME Bitcoin Futures Reaches All-Time High, Indicating Continued Bullish Sentiment
Bitcoin futures open interest on the CME exchange has reached an all-time high of 172,430 BTC ($11.6 billion). Over the past five trading days, CME bitcoin futures have experienced an increase of 25,125 BTC, marking one of the highest recorded changes in recent years. Bitcoin (BTC) futures open interest (OI) on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has attained a new all-time high of 172,430 BTC ($11.6 billion). On Tuesday, CoinDesk reported that cash-margin open interest reached a new all-time high, with CME accounting for 40% of the total. Open interest refers to the number of open or active futures contracts at any given time.
In the past five trading days, CME has seen an increase in open interest by 25,125 BTC. This is one of the highest levels recorded over a five-day period in recent years. The last time we saw such a significant build-up was during June 2023 (26,525 BTC), which coincided with BlackRock filing for the spot Bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT). During this period, Bitcoin surged from approximately $25,000 to $30,000. Then, in October 2023, CME saw an addition of 25,115 BTC, which marked its first time surpassing Binance as the largest futures exchange. Once again, during this period, Bitcoin rose from approximately $25,000 to over $40,000 by year-end.
Bitcoin: Futures Open Interest Daily Change
Vetle Lunde, a senior analyst at K33 Research, also highlighted this milestone and explored the cohort driving this growth. Lunde noted that active and direct market participants are driving the growth on CME, and it’s not coming from futures-based ETFs such as ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO). ‘The growth is clearly driven by active/direct market participants – not inflows to futures-based ETFs.’ The chart below by Lunde provides a breakdown of open interest by cohort on the CME.
Active and direct participants currently hold 85,623 BTC. This amount is similar to what was held in March when Bitcoin reached its all-time high. However, the 1x leveraged ETF has steadily declined throughout the year and holds just 31,752 BTC. In contrast, the 2x leveraged ETF, which saw a significant surge in March, has only experienced slight growth since then.
This suggests that speculation and leverage were key drivers during the early part of the year but are no longer the primary drivers in the current market. Lunde notes that the activity is structured around the November expiry, following the U.S. election.
CME Open Interest by Cohort (K33 Research)
Data source: K33 Research
